I am keeping one eye on the CNN coverage of Hurricane Gustav, so I’m a little distracted this Labor Day morning. As I write, CNN is reporting that flood waters are over the top of the Industrial Canal levee and in a new section of levee in the upper Ninth Ward.
The Hopeful S. (G2) is the closing day feature at Saratoga, and the prestigious seven-furlong test for two-year-olds will go a long way in establishing the leaders of the division. Lets take a closer look at each of the entrants.
Break Water Edison — Showed the ability to drop back and follow horses, then advanced nicely while in hand on the outside around the turn before challenging for the lead in upper stretch and finishing a good second to Run Away and Hide in the Saratoga Special S. (G2) on August 14. He is a primary contender.
Desert Party — Broke last, pressed from the inside, then was steadied and dropped back again near the five-sixteenths pole. Darley colorbearer had to wait in a pocket turning for home, then accelerated nicely and drew off like a good thing in the Sanford S. (G2) on a sealed, sloppy track on July 24. Everyone has noticed the relatively slow time of 1:12 1/5, but one has to look at Desert Party in the context of the race, which in many ways was run like a high-level turf event. This horse has a terrific turn of foot (as I noted in my previous posts) and should relish the added distance. At 6-1 on the morning line, he offers a prime overlay opportunity. Top choice.
Cognito — Decent maiden winner over a sealed track going 5 1/2 furlongs for trainer Steve Asmussen in his last start, but faces a class test with these. He should be included on the bottom of the vertical exotics, however.
Munnings — Todd Pletcher pupil was slow to begin, then was hustled to the lead and was under pressure for most of the race before drawing off to a 4 1/4-length victory when unveiled on July 26. The colt, who was the second-highest price at $1.7 million at the Fasig-Tipton Calder Sale, ran six furlongs in an eye-catching 1:09 4/5 and is the probable favorite. Munnings certainly looks the part, but he could be overbet in this spot.
Vineyard Heaven — Purchased by trainer Bobby Frankel following his first-out score at Calder, the gray colt offered a bid on the outside near the quarter-mile grounds before bumping the foe to his inside in upper stretch and finishing a non-threatening third to Desert Party in the Sanford. He would have to improve significantly to factor, but is another to use on the bottom of the vertical exotics as insurance.
Medaglia d’Onore — Jamie Sanders trainee makes his sixth career start following a pair of unplaced efforts at the graded level. Seems unlikely.
Notonthesamepage — Ramsey homebred was under restraint while running off on the lead through fast fractions before folding tamely in midstretch when finishing second in the 5 1/2-furlong Tyro S. at Monmouth Park last out. Probable pacesetter has the look of an underlay at 9-2 on the morning line.
Cribnote — Well-named colt had the benefit of a perfect trip against fellow state-breds before disappearing to a 13 1/2-length victory while running 5 1/2 furlongs in a sharp 1:03 1/5 last out. Richard Violette trainee is tactically drawn on the outside and is a nice one who must be respected for a part.
I am primarily going to support Desert Party, and I will use him with Break Water Edison, and to a lesser extent, with Munnings, Cribnote, Cognito, and Vineyard Heaven in the vertical exotics.
*****
In the third, I like Discreet Treasure, who ran a deceptively good race in his first start against winners on August 10. That day, the Stan Hough trainee displayed a totally opposite running style compared to his debut.
He broke forwardly and led the way into the first turn, then was headed while under a hold entering the backstretch. He dropped back, then advanced again on the rail to engage to a four-way duel for the lead down the backstretch.
Going into the second turn, he poked his head in front, dropped back a bit, poked his head in front again turning for home, then finished willingly to a Grade 1-placed older foe.
Discreet Treasure is a promising three-year-old who should go through his conditions quickly. I think Tend, who comes off a runner-up effort in his return, is his primary rival.
*****
Amazingly, there are 10 live entries on the final day of the meet in the Saratoga SHOWdown contest. The winners will divide a total pool of $35,930.
*****
In Saratoga Springs, it was sunny and 77 degrees with a dew point of 59 at 11:45 a.m. Another delightful late summer day will close out the meet.
Tags: Break Water Edison, CNN, Desert Party, Discreet Treasure, handicapping, Hopeful, Hopeful selections, Hurricane Gustav, Munnings, Saratoga selections, Saratoga showdown, Saratoga spot plays, Saratoga Springs, The Joyce Report, Thoroughbred racing
